南方乳业恢复北交所上市审核，奶源周期波动影响待解

Core Viewpoint - Southern Dairy has resumed its listing review on the Beijing Stock Exchange after a temporary suspension due to expired financial reports, with key concerns regarding its market position and R&D expenses raised by the exchange [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position - Southern Dairy is a subsidiary of Guizhou Agricultural Investment Development Group, focusing on the research, production, and sales of dairy products, primarily low-temperature and room-temperature dairy products [3]. - The company claims a market share of approximately 67.84% in Guizhou and 1.03% nationally, positioning itself as a leading local dairy enterprise [3]. - The Beijing Stock Exchange has questioned the authority and accuracy of the data regarding Southern Dairy's market size and share, requesting clarification on the sources of this information [3]. Group 2: R&D Expenses - Southern Dairy reported R&D expenses of 9 million CNY, 11.67 million CNY, 12.17 million CNY, and 5.76 million CNY over the past four years, with an average of 10.94 million CNY [4]. - The inquiry from the exchange seeks justification for the full inclusion of the salary of the Chief Engineer in R&D expenses and the rationale behind the distribution of salaries among part-time R&D personnel [4]. Group 3: Profitability Concerns - In the first half of 2025, Southern Dairy's revenue reached 850 million CNY, a slight increase of 3.7%, while net profit surged by 78.2% to 120 million CNY, attributed to increased gross margins and reduced asset disposal losses [5]. - The gross margin for low-temperature dairy products increased by 3.88%, with revenue from this segment rising by 9.57% due to adjusted sales policies [5]. - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of Southern Dairy's profitability, particularly with anticipated increases in milk prices and the challenges of maintaining product pricing and downstream profits [5][7]. Group 4: Revenue Growth Trends - Southern Dairy's revenue from 2021 to 2024 was approximately 1.33 billion CNY, 1.58 billion CNY, 1.80 billion CNY, and 1.82 billion CNY, with net profits of about 142 million CNY, 173 million CNY, 200 million CNY, and 209 million CNY respectively [6]. - The growth rate for 2024 has slowed, with revenue growth of only 0.65% and net profit growth of 4.36% compared to previous years [6]. - The exchange has raised concerns about the company's ability to expand outside Guizhou, questioning the sufficiency of evidence supporting its market expansion claims [6][7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The retail scale of China's dairy market is projected to reach approximately 521.67 billion CNY in 2024, with expectations of growth to 596.66 billion CNY by 2026 [7]. - Analysts recommend that Southern Dairy focus on deepening its market presence within Guizhou rather than aggressively pursuing external markets, suggesting a new retail model for product innovation [7]. - The exchange's requirements for listing include demonstrating innovation through R&D investments, with specific quantitative benchmarks outlined [8].