美联储大消息，12名票委已有5人倾向“不降息”，市场转向“数票”模式

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with some members signaling support for interest rate cuts while others advocate for maintaining current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams has indicated support for a rate cut, which has increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with futures showing a probability rise from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, leading to a near-even split among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with five members favoring no rate change [1][2]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [2]. - The recent volatility in rate cut probabilities has disrupted market assessments of future interest rate directions, challenging the Fed's historical emphasis on consensus decision-making [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - Dissenting votes, previously rare during Powell's tenure, have notably increased this year, with no unanimous decisions since June [5]. - Research indicates that a low number of dissenting votes can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [5]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining rates in July, marking the first time in 32 years that two governors opposed the chair's decision [5]. Group 4: Cautious Stance Among Policymakers - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing concerns similar to those of Kansas City Fed President George, with five of the 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain rates in December [7]. - Formerly dovish officials are also hinting at a preference for keeping rates unchanged, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating he would dissent if he strongly disagreed with the majority [8]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The upcoming December decision is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in years, with some economists believing Williams' recent comments have solidified the case for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain [9]. - Dallas Fed President Logan noted the inherent uncertainty in macroeconomic and monetary policy decisions, emphasizing the challenge policymakers face in understanding the current economic landscape [9].