REITs“溢价率”高危系数探讨-二级市场的震荡空间与未来变化

Core Insights - The REITs market is experiencing high premium rates, with an average premium rate of approximately 40.66% as of November 21, 2025, indicating a potential disconnect between asset value and market price [2][4] - The market is facing challenges due to declining trading volumes and liquidity issues, which may lead to significant volatility and instability in the REITs sector by 2026 [1][4] - The performance of REITs in the secondary market is under scrutiny as investors assess the impact of earnings completion on market prices, particularly for those with high premium rates [1][4] Market Dynamics - The "嘉实物美消费REIT" has the highest premium rate at 77.26%, suggesting a significant deviation between market capitalization growth and asset value [4] - Many REITs lack comprehensive annual comparable data, and some have shown negative growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of high premium rates [4][5] - The current REITs market resembles previous high points, but with more diversified institutional investors and increased large transactions [5] Premium Rate Analysis - Different sectors show varying premium rate potentials: industrial parks have an average premium space of 18.23%, logistics warehouses 33.19%, affordable housing 26.03%, and consumer sectors 21.76% [5] - The premium rates are compared against historical averages and issuance predictions, indicating potential for further adjustments in the market [5] Investor Behavior - As the year-end approaches, investor profit-taking is expected to increase, leading to a potential passive rush to exit positions [6] - The market may experience a high-level stagnation due to a combination of improved distribution rates, good earnings completion, and institutional self-rescue efforts [6]