金价反弹无力？关键看12月这个“转折点”

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in international gold prices have left new investors confused, with a significant drop in mid-October followed by a weak rebound in November, raising concerns about future price movements [1] Current Status of International Gold Prices - International gold prices are currently experiencing weak rebounds and face short-term downward pressure, primarily due to a decrease in market risk aversion [2] - A technical analysis indicates three bearish signals: a "death cross" in MACD indicators, the price falling below multiple short-term moving averages, and a larger correction in October compared to April, reflecting insufficient market confidence [2] Key Price Levels - Investors should focus on two critical price levels: - The short-term support level at $4000 per ounce, which is likely to be breached, potentially leading to a drop to the $3900 per ounce range [4] - A strong support level between $3885 and $3880 per ounce, represented by the 60-day moving average, which has historically provided significant support [4] Potential Price Movements - If the 60-day moving average holds, potential rebound targets are set at $4040-$4050 per ounce and $4100-$4140 per ounce, with the latter facing considerable resistance [6] Core Influencing Factors - The primary factors affecting international gold prices include: - Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which are currently not leaning towards a rate cut, impacting gold prices negatively [8] - The strength of the US dollar, which typically inversely correlates with gold prices; recent dollar strength may face resistance, potentially allowing for gold price rebounds [8] - Upcoming US economic data, which will significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and, consequently, gold prices [8] Future Scenarios for Gold Prices - Two potential scenarios for gold prices based on upcoming US economic data: - A pessimistic scenario where strong employment data and rising inflation lead to expectations of no rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices below $4000 per ounce and targeting $3750 per ounce [10] - An optimistic scenario where weak employment data and falling inflation raise expectations for a rate cut, possibly allowing gold prices to break through the $4150-$4200 per ounce resistance and target $4500-$4600 per ounce [10]