美联储年内“最后一降”仍成谜

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of key economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports, complicates the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, leading to increased uncertainty regarding potential interest rate changes in December [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Delays - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced the cancellation of the October CPI report due to funding interruptions, which hindered data collection [3][4]. - The November CPI report, originally scheduled for December 10, will now be released on December 18, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1][3]. - The employment situation report's release has also been postponed from December 5 to December 16, further limiting the data available for the Fed's decision-making [4][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is facing a "data fog," making it challenging to formulate monetary policy effectively [3][6]. - There is a growing divide among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the direction of interest rates, with some favoring a hold and others indicating a potential for rate cuts [6][8]. - Recent statements from key officials, such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York Fed President John Williams, highlight differing views on inflation risks and labor market conditions, contributing to the uncertainty [6][7][8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have increased, with the probability rising from below 30% to over 60% following Williams' comments [1][6]. - The upcoming decision is anticipated to be one of the closest votes in recent years, with a near 50-50 chance of either maintaining rates or cutting them [1][8].