Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a historical pattern of limited downside after breaking below the 20-day moving average, with the current adjustment indicating that short-term downward risks have been sufficiently released [1]. Group 1: Market Behavior - After breaking below the 20-day moving average on November 17, the market has continued to adjust for 4 days, resulting in a 5% decline, which aligns with historical patterns of risk release [1]. - Historical data shows that in 99 cases of breaking below the 20-day moving average, the average subsequent decline lasted 6-7 days with a further adjustment of approximately 3% [1]. Group 2: Historical Patterns - In June, September, and October of this year, the market touched the 20-day moving average, with subsequent adjustments not exceeding 3 days and a maximum decline of 1.5%, consistent with historical trends [1]. - The analysis of past market cycles indicates that the average performance after breaking the 20-day moving average has varied, with different rounds showing different recovery rates and average gains over 5, 20, and 60 days [2].
牛市中99次跌破20日均线后,平均再下跌6-7天,再调整3%
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-23 16:56