十月会议纪要凸显美联储政策分歧扩大

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions regarding future monetary policy adjustments, indicating uncertainty in the direction of future rate changes [1][2] - In October, the Federal Reserve implemented its second rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024 [1] - The minutes show that several participants opposed the October rate cut, while others believe a December cut is likely, but many think it may not be appropriate due to ongoing inflation risks [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days has hindered the availability of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - Current economic data does not strongly support a third consecutive rate cut, as overall inflation remains above target levels, with no clear signs of a return to the 2% target [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to officially stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which may influence future rate adjustments [2] Group 3 - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, reaching a four-year high, has created divergent market expectations [3] - The December meeting of the Federal Reserve will be closely watched, as its decisions significantly impact global financial markets [3] - Following the meeting minutes, the U.S. dollar strengthened while the Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar index reaching 100.35, close to a six-month high [3] Group 4 - The future trajectory of gold prices is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with central bank policies influencing market directions as year-end approaches [4]