月内大跌逾15%！焦煤期价急转直下，原因是？

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures prices have sharply declined, showing a "V" shaped trend, with a total drop of 205 yuan/ton or 15.55% since the peak on October 31 [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of November 20, the coking coal futures contract has experienced a significant drop in price, reflecting market concerns about a peak in coal prices [1] - The price of Mongolian coal has also decreased by approximately 160 yuan/ton, contributing to the overall decline in coking coal prices [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in coking coal prices is attributed to three main factors: reduced production by coking plants due to losses, increased expectations of coking coal supply following a national energy supply meeting, and a rise in Mongolian coal imports [3] - The average daily production of independent coking enterprises has decreased from 661,200 tons in early October to 629,700 tons currently, indicating a sustained drop in coking coal demand [3] - Steel mills are experiencing losses and reducing production, leading to concerns about negative feedback in the black industry chain [3][4] Group 3: Inventory and Market Conditions - As of November 21, the iron water production of 247 sample steel mills has declined to 2.3628 million tons per day, down from a peak of 2.4081 million tons per day in early October, reflecting a decrease in demand [4] - Coking enterprises are facing a significant drop in profits and reduced operating rates, with coking production falling to 1.089 million tons per day from a peak of 1.1262 million tons per day in early October [4] - There has been a notable decrease in coking coal inventory at steel mills and independent coking plants, with a reduction of 240,000 tons last week, marking the first decline in five weeks [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent weakening of fundamentals, there are no conditions for a further significant drop in coking coal prices, as total inventory has decreased rather than increased [5] - There remains potential for winter storage in the coming months, despite high inventory levels at downstream steel and coking plants [5] - The overall coking coal market is expected to remain in a tight balance in the fourth quarter, with good sales conditions for coal mines and limited current inventory [5]