华泰策略：当前市场已初步具备空间感 估值接近“合理”中枢

Core Viewpoint - Recent market adjustments are attributed to multiple factors including debates over AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances [2][3] Market Adjustment Factors - The skepticism surrounding sustained capital expenditure in AI has increased among global investors, exacerbated by Nvidia's unexpected earnings report leading to a decline in its stock price [2] - Investor sentiment is influenced by a strong desire to preserve returns as the year-end approaches, alongside tightening dollar liquidity expectations impacting global risk assets [2] - Geopolitical issues have intensified, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market, as evidenced by declines across various asset classes including stocks, bonds, and gold [2] A-Share Market Outlook - The current A-share market correction shows signs of having sufficient space for recovery, with a projected "reasonable" forward PE TTM level for the Shanghai Composite Index at approximately 13.6x [2] - The market is expected to find strong support around the central level established in late September, and any significant market overcorrection could present further investment opportunities [2] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Positive signals indicate potential improvement in liquidity, with a rapid increase in December Fed rate cut expectations to over 70% following positive remarks from the New York Fed President [3] - Domestic liquidity shows signs of recovery, with a decrease in the average guarantee ratio in the margin financing market and a rebound in private equity fund registrations [3] - The recent peak in stock unlocks has passed, alleviating supply-side pressures in the market [3] Investment Strategy - Emphasis on safety margins in investment strategies is crucial under current high volatility conditions, focusing on sectors with low valuation and improving fundamentals such as seasoning and fermentation products, leisure foods, and communication services [3] - Attention should also be given to high-dividend assets as market risk appetite declines, with recommendations to consider cyclical dividends from sectors like coal, chemicals, and steel, as well as potential dividends from railways and food processing [3]