股市谈谈谈∣全球市场巨震，保持慢牛信仰

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing significant turbulence, with A-shares declining sharply due to global market sentiment disturbances, particularly influenced by U.S. market movements [1]. Group 1: Market Weakness Reasons - The core reasons for market weakness stem from two aspects: the Federal Reserve signaling tightening measures and a reversal in interest rate cut expectations following strong non-farm payroll data [2]. - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that valuations in U.S. equities, corporate bonds, real estate, and leveraged loans are at historical highs, raising concerns about overvaluation and market overheating [2]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, leading to a reassessment of the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, asset management institutions are increasingly inclined to "lock in profits" as the year-end assessment approaches, leading to reduced positions and liquidity pressure [4]. - The combination of external market disturbances and tightening liquidity has triggered a rapid market correction, although the potential for further declines is considered limited [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Major indices have entered critical support zones, with technical indicators showing clear oversold signals, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is accumulating [5]. - The market has largely priced in the expectation of no interest rate cuts in December, and the upcoming Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference may provide signals for stable growth policies, potentially catalyzing a rebound [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The recommended strategy is to maintain a balanced allocation with a focus on technology sectors, which are expected to rebound strongly after recent corrections [9]. - Key sectors to watch include AI, new energy, defense, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside cyclical sectors that show improvement potential [9]. - High-dividend sectors, particularly state-owned enterprises and banks, are suggested as stable investments to hedge against short-term market volatility [9]. - Additionally, increasing exposure to consumer sectors is advised due to historical seasonal effects that may yield excess returns as policy expectations rise [9].