未来5年，房子是白菜价还是黄金价？李嘉诚与王健林的看法一致

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market, which experienced significant growth since 1998, is now entering a long-term adjustment phase, with prices in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing signs of decline after years of rapid increases [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - Since the first round of housing reform in 1998, average property prices surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter to 11,000 yuan, a rise of over 450% [1]. - In first-tier cities, prices skyrocketed from 3,000 yuan to over 60,000 yuan per square meter, marking an increase of more than 2000% [1]. Group 2: Market Adjustment - The real estate market began to show signs of correction in 2021, starting with second and third-tier cities like Zhengzhou and Tianjin, and eventually affecting first-tier cities by 2023 [1][3]. - The adjustment is attributed to government policies aimed at curbing rapid price increases since 2016 and the impact of the global pandemic on residents' incomes [1]. Group 3: Policy Responses - To prevent drastic price drops, many cities have lifted purchase restrictions, including major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, and increased the maximum housing provident fund loan limits [3]. - Banks have reduced mortgage rates to historical lows and lowered down payment requirements from 30% to 15% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding future price trends, with potential for prices to either drop significantly or recover based on the effectiveness of current policies [3]. - Notable business figures like Wang Jianlin and Li Ka-shing predict a downward trend in prices, suggesting that the market may be saturated and that a "big reshuffle" in the real estate sector is likely [5][7]. - Both Wang and Li emphasize that the future may lean towards "cabbage prices" rather than "golden prices," indicating a more cautious outlook for property investments in the coming years [5][7].