股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the long-term bull market in the U.S. stock market since the 1980s is driven by structural economic transformation, technological advancements, and significant capital inflows, leading to a market capitalization to GDP ratio that has increased from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% today [1][3][6] - The U.S. stock market's growth rate has consistently outpaced economic growth, reflecting the market's ability to price in future growth potential [3][6] - The article highlights two historical periods of long bull markets in the U.S., specifically from 1860-1900 and from the 1980s to the present, both characterized by significant structural changes and technological progress [3][6] Group 2 - On the asset side, macroeconomic policies have focused on nurturing high-quality companies, with the Reagan administration's "creative destruction" policy facilitating the exit of outdated industries and promoting high-tech sectors [18][19] - Companies have increasingly prioritized operational efficiency and shareholder returns, with a notable shift towards high cash flow firms post-1980s, which began to outperform lower cash flow firms [23][28] - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 allowed companies to repurchase shares without the fear of being accused of stock price manipulation, leading to a significant increase in stock buybacks [28][29] Group 3 - Domestic long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, driven by the introduction of retirement savings plans and the increasing participation of institutional investors [34][38] - The rise of long-term investors such as pension funds and mutual funds has contributed to market stability and improved price discovery [36][38] - The article notes that from 1980 to mid-2025, foreign investors have accumulated $2.36 trillion in U.S. stocks, significantly outpacing domestic investors' contributions [42][43] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's "put option" policy has provided a safety net for the stock market, with the Fed intervening during market downturns to stabilize confidence and liquidity [48][49] - The article discusses how the Fed's focus on stock market performance has increased since the 1980s, with a notable rise in mentions of the stock market in FOMC minutes [48][49]