贝森特：美国经济虽受110亿美元停摆冲击，但整体无衰退风险

Economic Outlook - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the 43-day government shutdown resulted in a permanent economic loss of $11 billion, but he remains optimistic about economic growth prospects for next year due to falling interest rates and tax cuts [1] - Bessent noted that sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, are in recession, but he does not foresee a risk of negative growth for the overall economy [1] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Bessent attributed inflation to the service sector rather than tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, aligning with the previous administration's stance [1] - Recent consumer surveys indicated dissatisfaction with rising prices, yet Bessent maintains a positive outlook [1] Future Economic Growth - Bessent expressed strong optimism for 2026, stating that a foundation for robust and non-inflationary growth has been established [2] - The current annual inflation rate in the U.S. is 3%, with efforts ongoing to reduce it [2] Manufacturing and Employment - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, predicted a "brief setback" in Q4 economic growth due to the government shutdown, with growth expected between 1.5% and 2% [3] - Manufacturing job growth is anticipated, which will support the economic outlook for 2026 [3] Trade Policies - The U.S. recently announced reductions in import tariffs on certain food items, a result of trade negotiations [3] - Bessent emphasized that inflation is a comprehensive indicator, and the government is working to lower prices in controllable areas [3] Legislative Actions - Bessent called for the Republican party to vote immediately to end lengthy debate procedures if the government were to shut down again, echoing Trump's position [4] - Several policy adjustments are expected to increase real income levels for American workers, helping to offset rising living costs [4] Tax Reforms - Tax rate adjustments are projected to provide taxpayers with significant federal refunds in Q1 2026 [5] - The Trump administration plans to announce measures aimed at reducing healthcare costs, although specific details were not disclosed [5] Economic Development - A series of trade agreements are expected to boost the economy, with new factories anticipated to open across the U.S. [6]