2025航空行业报告：可持续航空燃料融资白皮书

Core Insights - The aviation industry is under significant pressure to reduce carbon emissions, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) identified as a key solution for decarbonization. However, there is a substantial funding gap for the large-scale production of SAF, which is projected to require an investment of approximately $19 billion to $45 billion by 2030 to meet the anticipated demand of 17 million tonnes per year [1][21][27]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Capacity - By 2030, global demand for SAF is expected to reach 17 million tonnes per annum, representing about 4-5% of total jet fuel consumption [15][37]. - Current SAF production capacity is insufficient, with only 4.4 million tonnes expected by the end of 2024, necessitating an additional 5.8 million tonnes of capacity to meet the 2030 demand [16][41][42]. - Major airlines are driving this demand, with 15 airlines accounting for over 80% of the SAF commitments, and only three airlines consuming more than 1% of SAF in their fuel mix as of 2023 [30][31]. Group 2: Technological Pathways and Investment Needs - Various production technologies for SAF include HEFA, Alcohol-to-Jet, Gasification-Fischer Tropsch, and Power-to-Liquid, each with distinct capital expenditure (CapEx) requirements and scalability challenges [17][21]. - HEFA is expected to dominate SAF production due to its maturity and lower CapEx, while advanced pathways like PtL and AtJ may gain market share under ambitious decarbonization strategies [21][22]. - The report outlines that achieving the necessary production capacity by 2030 will require securing final investment decisions by 2026 [16][47]. Group 3: Financing Strategies - The white paper identifies ten financial levers to mobilize investment for SAF projects, including research grants, multilateral development bank support, strategic industry investments, and long-term offtake agreements [3][23][26]. - Collaboration among stakeholders, including governments, airlines, fuel producers, and financial institutions, is essential to create a supportive ecosystem for SAF financing [3][25]. - Innovative financing mechanisms such as green bonds and tolling models are suggested to attract diverse capital sources and mitigate risks associated with SAF projects [26][27].