芯片博弈大反转！美国芯片管制翻车，想漏洞却越堵越多

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and contradictions in the U.S. semiconductor export controls against China, highlighting that despite stringent measures, China is finding ways to circumvent these restrictions and advance its semiconductor industry [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Export Controls - The U.S. government, particularly under the Trump administration, initiated a one-year suspension of certain export controls to China, which has led to significant backlash in Congress, prompting calls for tighter regulations [4][8]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce recently approved the sale of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips to companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, raising questions about the effectiveness of the export controls [4][10]. - The U.S. has limited resources to enforce these controls, with only about 600 personnel managing high-tech trade worth trillions, leading to numerous loopholes [10][21]. Group 2: China's Semiconductor Industry - Contrary to U.S. expectations, China's semiconductor industry is thriving, with projections indicating a 7.4% growth in the advanced packaging equipment market by 2025, reaching approximately 173.96 billion RMB [13][15]. - China is adopting a "multi-pronged" approach to semiconductor development, focusing on innovative technologies like Chiplet heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging, which allows it to bypass traditional process limitations [15][20]. - The collaboration across the entire semiconductor supply chain in China, involving research institutions and enterprises, is creating a robust ecosystem that is difficult to disrupt [15][17]. Group 3: International Dynamics - The U.S. attempts to rally allies like the Netherlands and Japan to strengthen export controls against China are proving ineffective, as these countries have economic interests in maintaining trade with China [17][21]. - Internal conflicts within the U.S. government are evident, with Congress pushing for strict controls while the executive branch is concerned about the impact on U.S. companies like NVIDIA [21][23]. - The U.S. is considering new regulations specifically targeting AI chips, but the complexity of enforcement and compliance costs may hinder effectiveness [23].