一二手房成交“止跌”，合肥竟大涨18%

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a significant "stop falling" signal in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes [1][11] - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes in 30 key cities for the first ten months of 2025 is 27.44 million square meters, remaining flat compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The second-hand home market is increasingly dominating transactions, with its share rising from approximately 38% in 2021 to nearly 65% in 2025 [2] Market Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, the transaction volume for second-hand homes in 30 key cities increased by nearly 6% year-on-year, indicating sustained market demand [2][11] - The first-tier cities demonstrated strong resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6%, outperforming second and third-tier cities [5] - Hefei led the 30 cities with an 18% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, while Shenzhen saw a notable 12% increase [5][9] City-Level Analysis - The performance of cities varies significantly, with some cities like Nanjing and Dalian experiencing substantial declines, with Dalian's year-on-year drop nearing 30% [6][10] - Second-tier cities such as Chengdu and Chongqing also showed positive growth, with Chengdu's transaction volume reaching 2.63 million square meters, up 11% year-on-year [5][9] - The overall transaction volume in third and fourth-tier cities continues to decline, with only a few cities like Dongguan and Yantai showing positive growth [6][10] Future Outlook - The overall expectation is for a weak recovery in the real estate market, with the total transaction area for the 30 cities projected to be around 350 million square meters in 2025, with second-hand transactions continuing to lead [11]