Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-24 02:05Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to poor short-term feedback from the downstream market and slowing inventory replenishment, leading to downside risks for lithium spot prices [1][6] - The firm predicts a 12% shortage in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [7] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 to $9,500 per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [6][8] Group 2 - The downgrade reflects concerns about the mid-term supply-demand balance in the lithium market, despite significant improvements in the fundamentals [6] - The firm has significantly reduced its earnings forecasts for Ganfeng Lithium, cutting estimates for 2026-2027 by 36%-42% and predicting a loss in 2025 [6][8] - Goldman Sachs maintains a sell rating for Ganfeng Lithium's A-shares and Tianqi Lithium's A and H-shares, with a target price of HKD 32 for Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares [6][8]