猪价持续下行，腌腊开启能否支撑价格上涨？

Core Insights - The overall trend in the pig market indicates a continued decline in prices, with a significant drop in live pig prices observed in November, reflecting a supply surplus and weak demand [1][5]. Price Trends - As of mid-November 2025, 30 out of 50 monitored products saw price increases, while 17 experienced declines, with live pig prices reported at 11.6 yuan/kg, down 1.7% from the previous period [1]. - The price of live pigs (external three yuan) fell from 12.05 yuan/kg on November 1 to 11.65 yuan/kg by November 24, marking a 3.3% decrease [1]. Policy and Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has proposed measures to strengthen comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig industry, aiming for high-quality development and dynamic supply-demand adjustments [2]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming southern cured meat season may provide some support for pig prices, but the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to limit any significant price rebound [2]. Market Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, the current low prices for fat and piglets may lead to a market-driven capacity reduction, with historical patterns indicating a likelihood of industry contraction [4]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, with a reported decline of 90,000 heads in the third quarter and a total below 40 million by the end of October, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Huatai Futures anticipates that the upcoming months will see increased pressure on pig supply due to concentrated market exits and seasonal peaks in slaughtering, despite ongoing demand growth [4]. - The chief economist at Zheshang Securities notes that the current pig cycle is characterized by shorter cycles and increased volatility, with a supply surplus expected to persist in the near term [5]. - Seasonal demand for cured meats in November and December may provide temporary support for prices, but the overall market remains oversupplied, limiting potential price increases [5].