鲍威尔盟友重磅定调！美联储12月降息又成大概率事件了？

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the labor market and recent statements from key officials [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating labor market [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of "low hiring, low firing," suggesting it may be at a critical point of worsening [2]. - Economists express concerns that the current economic situation exhibits stagflation characteristics, with high inflation and high unemployment coexisting [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly advocated for a rate cut, stating there is still room for further adjustments [3][5]. - The market's interpretation of Williams' comments led to a surge in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 40% to over 70% [3]. - The communication from top Fed officials is carefully calibrated to convey clear policy intentions while avoiding excessive market reactions [5][6]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements - Despite the growing consensus for a rate cut, some Fed officials, like Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan, expressed hesitance, citing inflation concerns [7]. - There are fundamental disagreements within the Fed regarding whether current policy is tight or loose, with some officials worried about inflation while others argue that key sectors remain under financial stress [7][8]. - The upcoming vote on the rate decision is expected to be contentious, with the final decision likely made during the meeting [9]. Group 4: Contextual Factors - The upcoming meeting will occur in a "data vacuum" due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting the Fed's access to the latest employment and inflation data [10]. - The concept of "insurance rate cuts" is being considered, where the Fed may cut rates while monitoring the economic response [10]. - Officials opposing the rate cut are signaling that the Fed is not cutting rates merely for the sake of it, which could prevent higher inflation expectations in the bond market [10].