Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-24 02:39Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities reaffirms the value of bank sector dividends, maintaining a positive outlook on medium to long-term capital market opportunities, particularly focusing on the structural market of quality urban and rural commercial banks under the "14th Five-Year Plan" financial transformation [1] Group 1: 2025 Review - As of November 14, the banking sector has seen a cumulative increase of 10.8%, driven primarily by capital market dynamics, with ongoing medium to long-term capital allocation favoring dividend value and quality fundamentals [1] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The bank sector is expected to transition from performance recovery to structural optimization and momentum conversion, aligning better with economic development and stable operations, while structural factors begin to dominate pricing evolution [2] Group 3: Quantity and Price - On the asset side, credit growth is expected to be driven by optimized allocations, with corporate loans remaining the main driver, while retail loan growth may continue to be weak. Positive factors include structural tools and consumption promotion policies, with the negative impact from the real estate market expected to diminish. On the liability side, competition for core deposits is intensifying [3] - Net interest margin (NIM) is projected to stabilize between 1.45% and 1.50%, supported by policy backing and improved liability costs, although rebound potential is limited due to low interest rates and asset scarcity [3] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - The development of digital finance is anticipated to reshape banking operating models, with ongoing improvements in fintech and digital transformation policies. Future policy planning may adapt to new AI trends, promoting deeper integration of technology and business within the banking sector, enhancing cost efficiency and creating new growth avenues [5]