以史为鉴，港股调整到什么阶段了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, has been influenced by tightening U.S. dollar liquidity and concerns over AI market dynamics, leading to a mixed outlook for future investments [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 24, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159125) saw a sharp increase of 1.86%, with major constituents like Li Auto rising over 6%, and Kuaishou-W and Alibaba-W both increasing by more than 4% [1]. - The Hang Seng Index has experienced significant fluctuations, with historical data indicating an average maximum decline of approximately 17% during major pullbacks, typically lasting around 53 trading days [6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data, including a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, has been mixed, with an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 40%, reflecting a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve amid tight dollar liquidity [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - According to Huatai Securities, the Hong Kong sentiment index stood at 35.8 as of November 21, indicating a pessimistic outlook but suggesting that the market may be entering a phase for potential accumulation by left-side investors [7]. - The Hong Kong market is seen as having unique investment opportunities, particularly in AI-related assets, which are expected to align with ongoing industrial trends and support future market performance [9]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF tracks the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, selecting 30 leading companies with high market capitalization and rapid revenue growth, including Tencent, Alibaba, and BYD [9].