美国经济数据诡异背离：GDP狂奔VS就业停滞，美联储陷入政策迷局

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a perplexing phenomenon where a slowdown in hiring coexists with high worker productivity and strong GDP growth, creating challenges for policymakers [1][2][3] Group 1: Employment Trends - U.S. companies have significantly slowed down hiring, with an average of only about 62,000 new jobs added over the last three months as of September [1] - The labor market has faced challenges due to major policy changes affecting labor supply and demand, particularly in trade and immigration [2] - There is uncertainty about whether interest rate cuts can offset the negative effects of these policy changes on hiring [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Productivity - Despite weak job creation, GDP remains strong, with consumer spending supporting corporate profit levels [2] - Businesses are investing heavily in new technologies, including artificial intelligence, which may lead to reduced spending in other areas such as hiring [2] - The resilience of the economy is attributed to robust consumer behavior and significant investments in AI, yet this has not translated into expected job growth [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The divergence between strong economic growth and weak job creation complicates policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, leading to a complex environment for monetary policy [1][3] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed hesitation about further interest rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing or the labor market cooling [3] - The potential for a disconnect between GDP performance and employment growth poses risks for the U.S. economy, with warnings that continued strong growth without job expansion could lead to recession [3]