金荣中国：美联储降息预期的升温，现货黄金暂交投于4044美元附近

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $4044 per ounce, showing limited movement after a previous decline to $4023 per ounce, but rebounded to $4100 following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, closing at approximately $4065 per ounce, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.47% [1] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, with traders raising the probability of a December rate cut to 70%-74%, a significant rise from a previous 40% [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield dropping to 3.52% and the 10-year yield to 4.067%, has contributed to the stabilization of gold prices as lower yields reduce the attractiveness of bonds, leading to a shift of funds towards non-yielding assets like gold [1][3] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with a revised negative growth in August and rising unemployment rates, which has intensified speculation about the Fed's future actions [4] - The geopolitical landscape is mixed, with potential peace prospects in the Russia-Ukraine conflict slightly reducing gold's safe-haven demand, while escalating tensions in the Middle East inject new uncertainties [4] - The recent proposal by Trump regarding Ukraine has brought the issue to the forefront of European leaders' agendas, with various responses indicating ongoing geopolitical complexities that could affect market sentiment [5] Technical Analysis - The gold price is facing resistance around the $4080 level, with potential support at $4020/3990, indicating a short-term bearish outlook as the market continues to test these levels [7] - The formation of a potential double top pattern suggests that gold may experience further adjustments, and traders should closely monitor the $4000 threshold for significant movements [7]