商品市场整体承压，黑色系、能化领跌

Market Overview - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with most commodities experiencing downward pressure, particularly in the energy, chemical, black metal, and agricultural sectors [1] - Energy and chemical sectors saw fuel prices drop by 2.73% and crude oil by 1.69%, while black metals like coking coal and coke fell by 7.67% and 3.89% respectively [1] Energy Sector - Oil prices exhibited a weak trend, fluctuating between a high of 460.4 yuan/barrel and a low of 445.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.67% at 447.4 yuan/barrel [2] - OPEC+ is set to pause production increases starting January, leading to an oversupply situation, while geopolitical factors are temporarily easing tensions [2][4] - Analysts predict continued pressure on oil prices due to oversupply expectations and potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil, resulting in a bearish outlook for the near term [4] Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures experienced significant declines, with the main contract LC2601 dropping 9% to 91,020 yuan/ton [5] - Supply concerns are easing as the resumption of a key lithium mine is progressing, although current production costs are higher than market prices [5][6] - Demand has stagnated, with major lithium battery manufacturers adjusting their procurement strategies, indicating a potential for further price declines [5][7] Employment Data and Monetary Policy - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [8] - The delay in the release of employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts in December [9] - Analysts suggest that despite strong employment data, the uncertainty surrounding upcoming reports may lead to a pause in rate cuts, with potential for future reductions in early 2024 [9][10] Agricultural Sector - The apple production this year is expected to decline, with lower quality and increased storage difficulties, leading to predictions of lower cold storage inventory levels [11] - Current cold storage inventory for apples stands at 7.73 million tons, with an increase of 89,200 tons from the previous week, indicating a potentially strong market for apples due to lower expected inventory levels [11]