高盛：12月降息“呼之欲出”，明年3月和6月各降一次

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its core judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path despite the delay in the September employment report, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a terminal level of 3%-3.25% [1][2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming December 10th rate cut decision is almost certain, with market focus shifting from "whether to cut" to the policy path and economic landing shape post-cut [2] - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to accelerate to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing slightly above the September level of 4.44% [2] Inflation Outlook - Goldman Sachs sees limited upside risks for further rate cuts based on optimistic interpretations of recent inflation data, with core PCE inflation remaining around 2.8% in September [3] - The baseline scenario anticipates a slowdown in the easing pace in the first half of 2026, with potential pauses in January and additional cuts in March and June to ensure rates return to neutral levels [3] Labor Market Concerns - Despite a strong non-farm payroll increase of 119,000, there are growing downside risks in the labor market, with potential employment growth trends estimated at only 39,000 [4] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen by 1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the rate for graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this key demographic [4] - The impact of AI and efficiency improvements may disproportionately affect consumer spending, potentially prompting the Fed to consider more rate cuts in the future [4] Market Valuation - Despite the absence of excess spending from a fundamental perspective, the stock market has already priced in these expectations, leading to forecasts of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade compared to historical averages [5]