Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks continue to decline, with Ganfeng Lithium down 7.35% and Tianqi Lithium down 4.83% amid falling lithium carbonate futures prices and market concerns over inventory and demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) is trading at 47.16 HKD, down 7.35%, while Tianqi Lithium (09696) is at 44.88 HKD, down 4.83% [1] - On November 24, lithium carbonate futures saw a drop of over 3%, reaching a low of 90,100 RMB per ton, with the entire contract experiencing a limit down last Friday [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - According to招商期货, the market is facing downward pressure due to slower inventory depletion, frequent news of production resumption, and adjustments in trading limits, with a tightening situation in December also suppressing prices [1] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating from Neutral to Sell, citing risks of declining lithium spot prices due to poor short-term feedback from downstream markets and slowing inventory replenishment [1] Group 3: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that while the lithium market fundamentals have improved significantly, the supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in the first half of next year, but extended inventory cycles in energy storage systems may offset this [1] - The firm has revised its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 down to 9,500 USD per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [1]
锂矿股继续下挫 复产预期等扰动因素频现 高盛料锂现货价格面临下行风险