鲍威尔盟友重磅定调 美联储12月降息又成大概率事件了？

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the labor market and recent statements from key officials [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating labor market [1]. - The labor market is showing signs of "low hiring, low firing," suggesting it may be at a critical point of worsening [1]. - Economists express concerns that the current economic situation exhibits stagflation characteristics, with high inflation and high unemployment coexisting [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly advocated for a rate cut, stating there is still room for further adjustments [2][3]. - The market's interpretation of Williams' comments led to a surge in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 40% to over 70% [2]. - The alignment of views among influential Fed officials, including Powell, Williams, and Governor Waller, suggests a strong consensus for a new round of easing [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements - Despite the rising consensus for a rate cut, some Fed officials, like Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan, expressed hesitance, citing inflation concerns [5]. - There are fundamental disagreements within the Fed regarding whether current policies are tight or loose, with some officials worried about the strong performance of capital markets [5][6]. - The conflicting phenomenon of a weak labor market alongside strong consumer spending remains a point of confusion for all Fed officials [6]. Group 4: Decision-Making Context - The upcoming Fed meeting will occur in a "data vacuum" due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting access to the latest employment and inflation data [8]. - The concept of "insurance rate cuts" may be emphasized, suggesting that any rate cut would be a precautionary measure while the Fed observes economic reactions [8]. - Officials opposing the rate cut signal that the Fed is not cutting rates merely for the sake of it, which could prevent higher inflation expectations in the bond market [8].