白宫突然背刺？美国豆农“政策红包”泡汤，芝加哥豆油期货暴跌2%

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to delay the import biofuel subsidy reduction plan from 2026 to potentially 2027 or 2028 has caused significant market reactions, particularly affecting soybean farmers and the biofuel industry [1][3][34] Policy Reversal Impact - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initially planned to halve the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits for imported biofuels starting January 2026, which would have reduced the competitive advantage of imported waste cooking oil, pushing refineries to buy more domestic soybean and canola oil [5][9] - The sudden policy change is primarily driven by concerns over rising fuel prices, as the biofuel industry heavily relies on imported raw materials [7][9] - The postponement of the subsidy reduction has led to a 2% drop in Chicago soybean oil futures, reflecting immediate market reactions [13][16] Market Reactions - The delay in policy implementation is expected to result in a reassessment of planting strategies among soybean farmers, as the attractiveness of soybeans compared to corn and cotton diminishes without policy support [15][22] - The U.S. biodiesel industry will continue to depend on imported waste oils and animal fats, easing competitive pressures on suppliers from the EU and Southeast Asia [16][22] Long-term Trends - The EPA's long-term goal remains to reduce import dependency and enhance domestic biofuel competitiveness, aligning with the "America First" energy policy [23][28] - Future biodiesel blending quotas are likely to increase, indicating a growing demand for biofuels despite the current policy delay [26][31] - The existing biodiesel production capacity significantly exceeds the proposed quotas, suggesting that large refineries may control output to stabilize RIN prices [31][33] Strategic Considerations - Investors should recognize that policy variables are critical in the oilseed market, often more influential than weather or inventory levels [28][30] - The interplay between energy transition, inflation pressures, and political maneuvering will continue to shape the market landscape for U.S. soybean farmers and related industries [34][36]