对冲需求创15个月来新高，美股反弹成强弩之末？

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising among traders regarding the sustainability of this year's stock market rally, particularly in the tech sector, despite the S&P 500 index being up over 12% this year [1] Group 1: Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The S&P 500 index recently recorded its largest weekly volatility range since June, indicating heightened market fluctuations [1] - The cost of options for the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has surged to its highest level since August 2024, reflecting increased hedging sentiment among investors [1] - The VIX fear index reached its highest level since April, highlighting the nervousness in the market [1] Group 2: Tech Stocks and Bitcoin Correlation - Recent declines in tech stocks have coincided with a significant drop in Bitcoin, which has seen increased sensitivity to the Nasdaq 100 index [3] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has experienced nearly $2.2 billion in outflows in November after attracting over $27.6 billion in inflows this year, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - The implied volatility premium remains at a historically high level, with the six-month VIX premium relative to the actual volatility of the S&P 500 being notably elevated [2] - Some traders are beginning to cash in on positions betting on higher volatility, with over 250,000 VIX call spreads being sold last week [4] - A risk reversal strategy was employed by an investor who bought put options on the Bitcoin ETF while selling call options, indicating a hedging approach against potential declines [3]