Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-24 06:22Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the main crude oil futures contract dropping to 442.5 yuan per barrel, nearing recent lows, leading to expectations of a tenth price reduction for refined oil in 2025 [1][2] Price Adjustments - As of November 24, 2025, gasoline prices will decrease by 70 yuan per ton and diesel by 65 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.05 yuan for 89 and 92 gasoline, and 0.06 yuan for 95 gasoline and 0 diesel [2][3] - This marks the 23rd price adjustment in 2025, with a pattern of "seven increases, ten decreases, and six stabilities" observed in refined oil pricing [2] Consumer Impact - Following the price reduction, consumers will see a decrease in fuel costs, with a small car's full tank costing approximately 2.5 yuan less [3] - For a small car with a monthly mileage of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the total fuel cost will decrease by about 4 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly will save around 106 yuan in fuel costs before the next adjustment [3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that ongoing peace talks between the U.S. and Russia-Ukraine may ease oil supply concerns, contributing to a potential further decline in oil prices [4] - The next price adjustment window is expected to open on December 8, 2025, with preliminary estimates suggesting a possible reduction of around 100 yuan per ton [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil supply is anticipated to remain in surplus, with OPEC+ expected to continue easing production cuts, potentially increasing global oil supply further [5] - The rise of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources is projected to increasingly impact global oil demand, compounded by uncertainties in global economic growth due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies [6]