国金证券:维持名创优品“买入”评级 海外强势扩张
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-24 07:13

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (09896) based on strong Q3 performance with a revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, driven by robust overseas business, particularly in North America, and rapid expansion of the TOPTOY brand [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 5.797 billion yuan (+28% year-on-year), with adjusted net profit of 767 million yuan (+11.7% year-on-year) and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% (down 2 percentage points year-on-year) [1] - Expected adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 2.96 billion, 3.42 billion, and 4.21 billion yuan respectively, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [1] Operational Analysis - Q3 revenue breakdown: Domestic Miniso 2.909 billion yuan (+19.3% year-on-year), Overseas Miniso 2.312 billion yuan (+27.7% year-on-year), TOPTOY 575 million yuan (+111.4% year-on-year) [2] - Domestic Miniso shows positive same-store growth in Q3, with store count reaching 4,407 (up 157 year-on-year) [2] - Overseas Miniso sees improved growth quality, with North America exceeding expectations; total overseas store count at 3,424 (up 488 year-on-year) [2] TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY revenue in Q3 was 575 million yuan (+111% year-on-year), driven by rapid store expansion and increased sales of proprietary and exclusive IPs [3] - Q3 gross margin was 44.7% (down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year), with total expenses rising to 1.43 billion yuan (+43.5% year-on-year) due to investments in strategic overseas stores [3] Future Outlook - Continued same-store recovery trend is expected, with ongoing expansion in global IP design retail positioning [3] - Domestic market is anticipated to benefit from large store strategies, while North America will focus on a concentrated store opening strategy to enhance scale effects [3]