危中有机！美财长爆料：政府停摆损失千亿，但超级大礼包在路上！

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly refuted recession concerns, expressing strong confidence in the economic outlook and depicting a robust growth scenario for the future [1][2]. Economic Growth and Legislative Impact - Bessent attributed his optimistic forecast largely to a significant bill passed in July, which includes various stimulus measures such as substantial tax cuts and tax credits for auto loan interest income [2]. - He highlighted that due to this legislation, working families are expected to receive substantial tax refunds in the first quarter of next year, which will directly increase household disposable income and effectively stimulate consumer market growth [4]. Trade Agreements and External Stability - The government’s efforts in achieving multiple trade agreements and international peace accords are expected to provide a stable external environment for economic development [4]. Current Economic Challenges - Bessent acknowledged existing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and certain interest-sensitive industries that are currently stagnant [5]. - He clarified that the weakness in these sectors is localized and not indicative of a broader economic crisis [7]. Inflation and Tariff Analysis - On inflation and tariffs, Bessent noted that recent price increases are primarily driven by the service sector, particularly rising labor costs, while inflation levels for imported goods remain stable [7]. - He explained the recent decision to eliminate tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, tea, and beef, as a result of trade negotiations with Latin American countries, aimed at enhancing trade relations rather than responding to inflationary pressures [7]. Government Operations and Public Confidence - Bessent mentioned the significant negative impact of previous government shutdowns on the US GDP [8]. - He announced an upcoming initiative aimed at reducing health insurance premiums, which is seen as a measure to stabilize living conditions for the public [9]. - The coordinated messaging from economic leaders follows recent electoral setbacks for their party, aiming to reassure the market and public regarding the economic outlook [9].