比特币持续暴跌加密货币该何去何从？

Group 1: Market Trends - The global financial market is experiencing significant divergence, with gold prices retreating to $4040 per ounce and Bitcoin dropping below the critical support level of $90,000 from its July peak [1] - The strong rise in gold is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and a return to traditional safe-haven assets, while Bitcoin's decline is influenced by regulatory uncertainties, institutional fund outflows, and a cooling speculative sentiment [1][2] - Ethereum has also faced a sharp decline, dropping over 25% from its July peak, officially entering a technical bear market [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Peter Schiff emphasizes Bitcoin's relative weakness compared to gold, noting that Bitcoin has fallen 30% when priced in gold since its July high, indicating a deep bear market for Bitcoin [2] - Schiff argues that gold's physical scarcity and historical monetary attributes provide intrinsic value, while Bitcoin relies on market sentiment and speculation, lacking a solid value anchor [2][3] - Institutional investors have significantly increased their allocation to gold ETFs in 2024, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, highlighting a shift in asset allocation preferences [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market crash triggered a chain reaction, with over $1.2 billion in forced liquidations across major exchanges, predominantly in Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives [2] - Whale accounts, holding over 1,000 Bitcoins, have accelerated their selling, contributing to market declines and reflecting a need for asset rebalancing among institutional investors [5] - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced seven consecutive weeks of net outflows, the longest streak since 2023, contrasting sharply with the ongoing inflows into gold ETFs [5] Group 4: Challenges for Crypto Companies - Companies that heavily invest in cryptocurrencies, like MicroStrategy, face significant challenges as their stock prices have plummeted over 65% from yearly highs, raising concerns about their financing strategies [4] - The business model of crypto asset reserve companies is under severe strain, with many companies now trading at a discount to their held cryptocurrency values [6] - The mNAV valuation metric for MicroStrategy has dropped from above 3.0 to just 1.1, indicating a loss of confidence in the crypto asset reserve model [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is being re-evaluated, with the need for Bitcoin to demonstrate resilience in adverse conditions to gain equal market status with traditional safe-haven assets [7] - Analysts suggest that while the market faces challenges, the fundamental aspects of Bitcoin, such as active addresses and hash rate, remain strong, indicating potential long-term value [6][7]