人民币被低估！美切断SWIFT，支付占比仅剩2.47%，中方早有后手

Core Viewpoint - The recent SWIFT report indicates that the share of the Chinese yuan in global payments has dropped to 2.47%, ranking it sixth globally, which raises concerns about the internationalization of the yuan. However, this decline is seen as a reflection of a broader shift away from the SWIFT system rather than a failure of the yuan itself [2][5][19]. Group 1: SWIFT Data Analysis - The yuan's share in global payments has decreased significantly, with a drop to 2.47%, and only 1.87% when excluding payments within the Eurozone, leading to a drop in ranking to seventh [5][19]. - The dominance of the US dollar remains strong at 46.71%, followed by the euro at 23.98% and the British pound at 7.82%, suggesting a continued reliance on the dollar for international transactions [5][19]. - The SWIFT data is criticized as being a limited view of global trade settlements, primarily reflecting transactions under US influence, rather than a comprehensive picture of global trade [7][9]. Group 2: Shift to Alternative Payment Systems - A growing number of countries are moving away from SWIFT due to concerns over US control and potential sanctions, leading to a rise in the use of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and bilateral currency swap agreements [9][11][17]. - CIPS is increasingly recognized globally, facilitating direct settlements in yuan for trade with countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil, thus bypassing SWIFT and reducing reliance on the US dollar [11][15]. - The People's Bank of China has signed currency swap agreements with over 40 countries, amounting to several trillion yuan, allowing for direct trade settlements without using the dollar [13][15]. Group 3: Implications for Global Financial Landscape - The decline in the yuan's share in SWIFT is viewed as a sign of the restructuring of the global financial system, reflecting a collective distrust of US dollar hegemony among emerging economies [19][25]. - The future financial landscape is expected to feature a dual-track system, with the US-led SWIFT system coexisting alongside China's CIPS and bilateral agreements, allowing the yuan to play a significant role in the global south and in real economy transactions [25][27]. - As more countries adopt the yuan for trade settlements, the significance of SWIFT rankings will diminish, indicating a shift in control over global trade settlements away from the US [27][28].