选票驱动经济！特朗普放双宽政策大招，2026年美国要结束软着陆？

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a "soft landing" to potential expansion, influenced by upcoming midterm elections and AI industry growth [4][6][34] - The Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from controlling inflation to preserving employment, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts from December 2025 to December 2026 [6][8] - Fiscal policy is projected to boost GDP by 0.43% in Q4 2026, with potential for further increases if additional measures are implemented [10] Group 2 - AI investments are becoming a significant growth driver, contributing 1.4% to GDP in early 2025, surpassing private consumption [14][20] - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures on AI, supported by strong cash flows, indicating a more sustainable investment environment compared to the 1990s tech bubble [16][19] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices, driven by AI-related investments, is providing new support for consumer spending, despite concerns over income inequality [22][24] Group 3 - Inflation risks are a major concern, with predictions of a potential CPI increase to 3.4% by May 2026, influenced by loose fiscal and monetary policies [25][28] - The uncertainty surrounding AI growth and potential declines in tech companies' cash flows could negatively impact both the stock market and the economy [30] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with 10-year Treasury yields projected to range between 3.2%-4.5%, affecting corporate investment and the real estate market [31][32]