加工费跌至历史冰点、海外冶炼厂生存承压，2026年铜精矿长协谈判开启严酷博弈

Core Insights - The global copper processing industry's pricing mechanism is undergoing significant changes, with supply negotiations for 2026 taking place amid complex geopolitical conditions and notable market supply-demand shifts [1] - The long-standing annual benchmark pricing system is facing a critical turning point as copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to historically low levels, leading to unconventional pricing in the spot market [1] - The current negotiations reflect a cautious market sentiment, with mining companies aiming to establish supply agreements that better align with the current market conditions [1][3] Pricing System Adjustments - The copper processing fees have historically fluctuated with market supply and demand, but recent tightening of copper concentrate supply has prompted structural reevaluation within the industry [3] - Analysts indicate that the existing benchmark system is under new scrutiny due to the rapid growth of metal processing capacity outpacing mine output increases [3] - The disparity between long-term contract fees and spot market prices poses challenges to the stability of the benchmark system, with a focus on how Chinese smelters can secure copper concentrate supply through annual contracts [3] Operational Pressures on Overseas Smelters - Smelters outside of China are experiencing operational pressures, with industry organizations in Japan, South Korea, and Spain expressing concerns over current processing fee levels [4] - Japanese smelting companies are enhancing coordination to improve their negotiating positions, acknowledging a "significant change" in market conditions [4] - Some overseas capacities have begun to adjust, with companies like JX Advanced Metals Co. announcing production adjustment plans and Glencore Plc receiving support for its operations in Australia [4] Market Supply and Industry Outlook - Despite low processing fees, China's copper industry continues to grow, with refined copper production showing year-on-year increases as of October [5] - Chinese smelting companies are maintaining operations at current processing fee levels, partly due to favorable prices for refined copper and by-products like sulfuric acid [5] - In contrast, smelters in other regions face different market conditions, with challenges in securing raw materials due to fluctuations in global mine supply and increasing smelting capacity [5] Future Procurement Activities - Analysts predict that Chinese smelters will continue to seek raw material supplies within manageable cost ranges, with stable procurement activities expected next year due to the gradual commissioning of new capacities [6] - This situation further strengthens the position of miners in the 2026 negotiations, indicating that the global copper processing industry is entering a new phase of adjustment and adaptation [6]