高盛最新研判:美联储12月将降息,明年再降两次

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors allowing for further monetary policy relaxation [1] - The firm anticipates additional rate cuts in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to a range of 3.00%–3.25% [2] - Goldman Sachs notes that financial conditions have significantly eased since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle, which has helped stabilize corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [2] Group 2 - In contrast, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have abandoned their predictions for a December rate cut following a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report, which showed an unexpected increase of 119,000 jobs in September [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, prompting Morgan Stanley to retract its forecast for a 25 basis point cut in December [4] - JPMorgan followed suit after Morgan Stanley's decision, also dropping its prediction for a December rate cut [4]