IC Markets：税收的N种姿态 美联储降息博弈将如何搅动市场？

Group 1 - Nvidia's recent earnings report fell short of expectations, leading to market caution due to concerns over inventory inflation and delayed payments, raising worries about the revenue strength of AI companies [1] - The AI sector is experiencing accounting pressure as some companies resort to off-balance-sheet debt to sustain spending, indicating a potential shift from an AI boom to a crisis [1] - The interconnectedness of the industry suggests that if one company fails to meet its obligations, it could trigger a domino effect across the sector [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's Qwen3 model attracted over 10 million users, leading to a 5% increase in its stock price ahead of its earnings report [3] - The KOSPI index in South Korea attempted a rebound but lost most of its gains as European markets opened, while Japan's market was closed, limiting insights into investor sentiment towards AI [3] - The development cycle of AI is expected to surpass any potential market downturn, although tech stocks remain vulnerable in the short term [3] Group 3 - Despite Trump's announcement to lower tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas, the US consumer confidence index has dropped to a historical low [4] - The dollar strengthened against major currencies last week, driven by market expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, although it faced pressure this morning [4] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, with ICMarkets suggesting a 50-50 chance, as maintaining current rates seems more reasonable given the Fed's plans to end balance sheet reduction [4] Group 4 - A significant tax increase in the UK could have deflationary effects, potentially prompting the Bank of England to cut rates as early as December [5] - The UK faces a potential crisis with a large number of company directors planning to leave the country due to tax issues, with 12% of small business owners considering relocating [5] - The outflow of taxpayers could deepen the budget deficit, leading to heavier tax burdens on those who remain, indicating a challenging fiscal environment for the UK [5]