黄金周报｜降息预期摇摆，金价震荡

Core Viewpoint - The London spot gold price experienced fluctuations but showed signs of a rising bottom, with a peak of $4132.81 per ounce and a low of $3997.66 per ounce, closing at $4064.28 per ounce as of November 21, reflecting a cumulative decline of $17.88 per ounce since November 14. The market is currently focused on the December FOMC interest rate expectations and the U.S. economic fundamentals, with medium to long-term support for gold prices due to the potential for a Fed rate cut cycle and increasing global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][7]. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows resilient growth momentum, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicating a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.2%. Personal consumption growth remains steady at an annualized rate of 3.4%, while weekly jobless claims decreased to 217,000, indicating a stable job market. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, influenced by an increase in labor force participation [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are fluctuating, with internal divisions among officials regarding the necessity of a December rate cut. Recent FOMC minutes revealed that many officials see insufficient reasons for a cut, while others still consider it necessary post-December meeting. The delay in the release of key employment data has led to increased market uncertainty [4][5]. Global Central Bank Gold Purchases - The Central Bank of Russia has begun selling physical gold reserves to address budgetary needs, although the timing and scale of these sales remain undisclosed. This action is primarily aimed at domestic markets due to international sanctions, and it may lead to fluctuations in gold prices as other countries under fiscal pressure might follow suit [6]. Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the medium to long term, gold is expected to have support due to the Fed potentially entering a rate cut cycle, increasing global macroeconomic uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization. The demand for gold as a safe asset is likely to rise amid geopolitical tensions and challenges to the dollar's credit system, suggesting a favorable environment for gold prices [7].