3 6 Ke·2025-11-24 10:25Core Insights - The discussion at Morgan Stanley's 24th Asia-Pacific Summit featured Sebastian Thrun, a key figure in autonomous driving, and analyst Adam Jonas, covering various aspects of autonomous driving technology, industry stages, and the evolution of companies like Waymo [1][3] Autonomous Driving Technology - The primary technical debate in autonomous driving is between "pure vision" and "multi-sensor fusion" approaches, with Thrun highlighting Tesla's pure vision FSD tests in Austin as a potential industry turning point [4][6] - The cost advantage of pure vision systems is significant, as high-end LiDAR costs thousands of dollars compared to camera costs of only tens of dollars, which could disrupt the multi-sensor fusion approach if proven safe [6] - Pure vision systems face challenges in adverse weather and low-light conditions, requiring advanced AI models to infer complete environmental states from limited visual information [7] Industry Development and Commercialization - Thrun considers the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge a pivotal moment for the industry, and notes that approximately one-third of the 500 summit attendees had experienced autonomous vehicles, primarily from Waymo [9] - The industry is transitioning from Level 4 (L4) to Level 5 (L5) autonomy, with significant economic value in freeing up driving time, and Thrun predicts the next 3-5 years will be crucial for commercialization [9][11] - Waymo's expansion plans include manual driving tests in cities like Minneapolis and New Orleans, with a goal to extend fully autonomous services to 15 cities by 2026 [9][11] Robotics and Market Dynamics - Thrun expresses caution regarding humanoid robots, suggesting that market expectations may be overly optimistic while underestimating the technical challenges involved [12] - He emphasizes the potential of aerial robots, stating that their growth will surpass that of ground robots, with infrastructure being a key limiting factor [14] - The existing air traffic control systems in the U.S. require significant upgrades to accommodate large-scale aerial robot operations, presenting investment opportunities in eVTOL and air traffic management [16] Waymo's Historical Context and Future Plans - Thrun shared insights into Waymo's origins as a Google moonshot project focused on traffic safety, emphasizing the importance of team dynamics and iterative development [17][18] - Waymo's long-term goal is to achieve fully autonomous driving without human intervention, with a current focus on expanding testing areas and scenarios [18] - The company is adopting a dual-track strategy of validating consumer experiences while exploring B2B opportunities, aiming for sustainable commercialization [18][19] Challenges in Robotaxi Deployment - Despite the acceleration of companies like Waymo and Zoox, Thrun believes the robotaxi industry has not yet reached a critical mass to transform transportation [19][21] - Key factors for reaching this critical point include geographic coverage, healthy competition, and ecosystem spillover effects, with urban density being a significant indicator [21] - The technological challenges for robotaxis include high-precision navigation, obstacle avoidance, and reliability in extreme weather conditions [20][23]