汇添富基金劳杰男：“自上而下”和“自下而上”相结合，让投资做得更从容

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen effective "barbell" asset allocation strategies, focusing on both dividend-yielding assets and high-growth assets, largely influenced by changes in China's macroeconomic environment [1] Economic Environment and Asset Allocation - The economic cycle can be analyzed using the "Merrill Lynch Investment Clock," which links economic growth and inflation to asset allocation choices, suggesting that in a rising GDP and CPI environment, commodities outperform stocks, cash, and bonds, while in a declining GDP and CPI environment, bonds outperform cash, stocks, and commodities [2] - The performance of core assets in the A-share market has significantly declined over the past two years, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a notable drop from a high of 13.5% in October 2021 to -1.3% in October 2022, remaining negative for 37 consecutive months [2] Industry Performance - From October 2021 to October 2025, the communication sector has increased by 149.5%, while the media sector has risen by 35.8%. In contrast, the beauty and personal care sector has decreased by 41.8%, and the food and beverage sector has fallen by 32.6% [2] - Recent data indicates that the PPI turned positive at 0.1% in October 2025, leading to noticeable increases in the chemical and food and beverage sectors [3] Investment Strategies - The importance of top-down analysis in investment decisions is increasing, as global macroeconomic changes and the growth of passive, style, and quantitative funds amplify this impact [4] - The combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches in investment practices is emphasized for a more comprehensive strategy [4] Future Considerations - The ongoing negative PPI trend necessitates close monitoring of potential changes and their implications for asset allocation strategies, particularly regarding the performance of "middle assets" over the next two years [5] - The complexity of macroeconomic operations suggests that factors such as confidence and expectations play significant roles, with "anti-involution" being identified as a potential positive trigger for changes in the domestic PPI [5]