强势反攻！“泡沫”疑云被击碎？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the AI sector, highlighting the contrasting views on whether there is a bubble similar to the 2000 internet crash, while emphasizing the resilience of the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index amidst market fluctuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) tracking the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index surged by 3.88%, making it the best-performing tech index in Hong Kong [1]. - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.25% since November 17, marking it as the least affected tech index in Hong Kong [1]. AI Sector Sentiment - There are two opposing perspectives in the market: one side believes AI is nearing a bubble similar to the 2000 internet crash, while the other sees it as a final opportunity for latecomers to invest [3][4]. - The debate centers around the quality of companies and their valuations, with comparisons drawn to the unsustainable valuations of internet companies in 2000 [4]. Financial Metrics - The "M7" companies, which significantly contribute to the Nasdaq's rise, have substantial revenues exceeding $100 billion and profits in the hundreds of billions, indicating strong financial backing [5][6]. - The capital expenditure to operating cash flow ratio for "M7" stands at 49%, lower than the 56% during the internet bubble peak, suggesting a healthier financial environment [6][7]. Valuation Comparisons - The overall valuation of "M7" companies is around 33 times earnings, which is lower than the peak of 60 times during the internet bubble, indicating a more rational market [8]. - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index has a PE (TTM) of 20.66, significantly lower than the 33 times of the US market, reflecting a valuation gap and potential investment opportunities [14]. Domestic AI Developments - China's AI sector is also experiencing a downturn, but recent breakthroughs, such as Alibaba's AI assistant achieving over 10 million downloads, indicate strong growth potential [9][10]. - The capital expenditure of Chinese tech giants is projected to turn positive, with a significant increase from -9.5% in 2024 to 18% by March 2025 [9]. Growth Potential - The AI revenue growth rate for major Chinese internet cloud companies has increased from 11.7% at the end of 2024 to 23.2% by the second quarter of 2025, marking a shift towards commercialization [19]. - The current focus of AI applications in China is primarily in the B2B sector, with significant potential for growth in consumer applications in the future [19]. Investment Outlook - The core investment value in the AI sector is driven by genuine demand, supported by financially healthy companies that are beginning to generate revenue [20]. - The ongoing technological revolution in AI is expected to yield compounding returns over the next 10-20 years, emphasizing the importance of focusing on long-term value rather than short-term market fluctuations [21].