Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-11-24 12:00Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors that allow for further monetary policy relaxation [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Predictions - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates twice more in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00%–3.25% [2]. - The firm believes that the trend of slowing inflation will persist, leading to a gradual transition of monetary policy towards a neutral stance [2]. - Goldman Sachs notes that since the start of the rate cut cycle, financial conditions have significantly eased, stabilizing corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with a 69.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut, up from about 42% a week prior [2]. - In contrast, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have retracted their predictions for a December rate cut after the unexpectedly strong September non-farm payroll report, which showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, prompting both firms to reassess their outlook on the Fed's monetary policy [4].