专访彭博全球首席经济学家：巨变潮涌，美国全球贸易份额正在收缩

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Impact - The escalation of U.S. tariff policies is significantly altering global trade structures and economic growth paths, with average tariffs rising from approximately 2% to about 15% under the Trump administration, leading to a projected 20% decline in exports to the U.S. compared to a no-tariff scenario [2][14] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) warns that Trump's tariffs are causing unprecedented damage to the international trade system, predicting only a 0.5% growth in global goods trade by 2026 [2] - The global economic growth rate is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025, partly due to the delayed impact of tariffs as companies are currently in a phase of inventory digestion [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - Despite the absence of stagflation in the U.S. currently, risks remain as tariffs begin to affect consumer prices, and the labor market shows signs of slowing down [3][7] - The potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy cannot be ruled out for 2026, as the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices is just beginning [7] - The U.S. economy's resilience is currently supported by significant capital expenditures in data centers driven by AI, despite tariffs being a drag on growth [7] Group 3: European Economic Dynamics - Europe is facing long-term structural challenges, including an aging population and high debt levels in countries like France and Italy, compounded by geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8][9] - However, there are positive developments, such as the "Draghi Report" proposing systemic reforms for stronger growth and Germany's commitment to significantly increase infrastructure and defense spending [9] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flow - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is being questioned, but there are no ideal alternatives, as options like the euro and gold have their limitations [10] - A decline in the dollar's role could lead to reduced demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in higher overall interest rates, which could have profound implications for the U.S. economy [11] - If the Federal Reserve's rate cuts outpace those of other central banks, it may lead to capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns elsewhere [13][12] Group 5: China's Economic Transition - China is at a critical stage of economic transition, with traditional sectors like real estate declining while high-end manufacturing in AI, electric vehicles, and sustainable energy is on the rise [4][15] - The growth data and price pressures in China will continue to be affected by old industries in the near term, but the emergence of high-end manufacturing is expected to drive growth into the 2030s [15]