中金 | 股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced a long-term bull market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, leading to a significant increase in market capitalization relative to GDP, from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% currently [1][3][4]. Macro Policy: "Replacing Old with New" - The Reagan administration's "Replacing Old with New" industrial policy enhanced U.S. economic efficiency by promoting the exit of outdated industries and fostering high-tech sectors [16][19]. - Specific measures included expanding international trade to phase out basic industries, reducing subsidies, and stimulating high-tech manufacturing through tax reforms and military industrial development [16][19]. Micro Enterprises: Focus on Profit Quality and Shareholder Returns - Companies began to prioritize operational efficiency and shareholder returns, with a shift in market focus from growth narratives to profitability metrics, particularly cash flow [21][26]. - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 facilitated stock buybacks, allowing companies to manage their stock prices more effectively [26][27]. Asset Side: Incremental Capital Flow - Long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, supported by the rise of institutional investors and changes in retirement savings plans, significantly increasing household participation in equity markets [32][33]. - The share of long-term investors, such as pensions and mutual funds, rose to 40% in the 1980s, enhancing market stability and price discovery [33][37]. Globalization: Continuous Inflow of Overseas Capital - The formation of a "dollar cycle" and the influx of overseas capital have been crucial for the long-term bull market, with foreign investors significantly increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks since the 1980s [40][42]. - From 1980 to mid-2025, foreign investors accumulated $2.36 trillion in U.S. stocks, compared to $633.3 billion from domestic investors, highlighting the importance of foreign capital in supporting the bull market [40][42]. Federal Reserve Put: Guardian of the Bull Market - The strengthening of the Federal Reserve's "put" option has provided market stability, with the Fed intervening during crises to support liquidity and market confidence [44]. - This trend began in the late 1980s and has continued through various market downturns, establishing a market expectation that the Fed will act to stabilize the stock market during significant declines [44].