繁荣假象？华尔街警告：美国经济过度捆绑AI，一旦投资熄火将引发衰退

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy's reliance on AI investment has reached a dangerous level, with concerns that a potential AI bubble burst could lead to a recession [1] Group 1: AI Investment Impact on GDP - AI-related investments are estimated to have contributed nearly half of the U.S. real GDP growth in the first half of the year [1] - Capital expenditures by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are projected to reach $344 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP, a significant increase from $228 billion last year [4] - AI spending has contributed to an annualized GDP growth of 0.8%, while the overall GDP growth rate was 1.6%, indicating that without AI-related spending, economic growth would be weak at only 0.8% [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Dependency - AI investment has become the sole engine of economic growth, with private sector investment excluding AI-related categories showing little growth since 2019 [5] - Despite higher-than-expected job growth in September, overall job creation has slowed, and the unemployment rate is gradually rising [5] Group 3: Wealth Effect and Market Risks - The rise in AI stock prices has contributed an estimated $180 billion to consumer spending, which represents a 0.9% increase [6] - Concerns about a potential bubble have led to a 2% drop in the S&P 500 index, with analysts warning that a slowdown in AI investment or a stock price crash could trigger a reverse wealth effect, pushing the fragile labor market towards recession [6] - Barclays estimates that a 20% to 30% drop in the stock market could reduce GDP growth by 1 to 1.5 percentage points within a year [6] Group 4: Debt Expansion Risks - The rapid growth of AI-related borrowing poses another risk, with Oracle recently issuing $18 billion in bonds, pushing its total debt over $100 billion [7] - Companies like CoreWeave are heavily borrowing to expand their data center operations, which could lead to issues if income to service the debt does not materialize [7] - While the scale of AI-related debt may not directly trigger a financial crisis, problems in one area could indirectly affect other sectors due to the complexity of financial markets [7]