美联储“痴迷”AI，却不敢再押一次“格林斯潘式豪赌”

Group 1 - Federal Reserve officials are increasingly focused on the economic transformation potential of artificial intelligence (AI), yet remain cautious about whether it has triggered a productivity revolution [1] - AI investment is driving a significant portion of U.S. economic growth, but central bank decision-makers are hesitant to make major policy bets, reminiscent of the 1990s internet boom [1] - Four out of five Federal Reserve candidates have recently expressed support for the notion of AI-driven productivity, indicating a shift in perspective among policymakers [1] Group 2 - Research from the St. Louis Fed indicates that generative AI may have increased labor productivity by 1.3% since the launch of ChatGPT, with a clear correlation between high AI adoption rates in industries and productivity gains [2] - Micro-level evidence is beginning to support the idea of a productivity boom, although macro-level evidence remains unclear [2] - Companies like Bluon Inc. report significant time savings for technicians due to AI tools, further supporting the productivity claims [2] Group 3 - A lack of high-quality data on enterprise AI usage is a fundamental issue, complicating accurate assessments of AI's impact on productivity and economic growth [3] - The Federal Reserve is exercising caution in policy-making due to the data challenges, despite acknowledging the potential for AI to drive economic development [3] Group 4 - The dual nature of AI technology adds complexity to policy-making, as it can enhance productivity while simultaneously impacting employment negatively, particularly in entry-level positions [4] - The information technology sector, an early adopter of AI, is contributing more to U.S. economic growth while experiencing a decline in employment numbers, highlighting the risks associated with technological advancement [4] Group 5 - Current corporate strategies appear to favor using AI to reduce workforce size rather than expand employment, contrasting with the internet boom era [5] - Some economists express optimism about AI potentially leading to faster growth rates, while also warning of the societal challenges posed by potential white-collar unemployment [5]