英伟达：Q3 股价回调后，丝毫不慌

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings report showcased strong AI demand, with a record revenue increase of $10 billion quarter-over-quarter, indicating that the AI competition is intensifying despite market concerns about an AI bubble [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nvidia reported total revenue of $57 billion for Q3, representing a year-over-year growth of 62%, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations and the company's prior guidance [2]. - The quarter's revenue increase of approximately $10 billion is more than double the total revenue of AMD's data center segment for Q3, which was $4.3 billion [2]. - The GAAP gross margin reached 73.4%, while the non-GAAP gross margin was 73.6%, both surpassing previous guidance, attributed to the increased share of data center business [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Prospects - Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is approximately 38 times, which analysts consider attractive, especially with Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion, indicating an $8 billion quarter-over-quarter increase [1][7]. - The company has locked in $500 billion in revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin series from early 2025 to the end of 2026, indicating strong future growth potential [5]. - Concerns about an AI bubble were addressed by CEO Jensen Huang, who emphasized the ongoing growth cycle and the significant revenue increases driven by AI applications, such as Meta's GEM model [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain - Q3 inventory increased by 32% quarter-over-quarter, and supply commitments rose by 63%, reflecting the company's preparation for future growth, particularly with the upcoming launch of the Rubin GPU [4][5]. - The increase in inventory is seen as a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with the Rubin GPU launch, ensuring adequate supply to meet anticipated demand [5]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Nvidia's valuation remains attractive compared to competitors, with its forward P/E ratio being half that of AMD's [7]. - The stock price is currently supported at the $180 level, with a potential drop to $150 representing a forward P/E of 32 times, which analysts view as a compelling buying opportunity [7]. Group 5: Market Concerns - Nvidia's GPU revenue from the Chinese data center market was only $50 million in Q3, aligning with expectations that significant orders would not materialize in this quarter [6]. - The company's stock performance is influenced by broader market trends, with analysts noting that macroeconomic pressures could lead to a decline below current support levels [7][8].