强势反攻，“泡沫”疑云被击碎？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the global AI technology sector and the strong rebound of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Internet ETF, which has shown resilience amidst concerns about an "AI bubble" [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) tracking the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index surged by 3.88%, making it the best-performing tech index in Hong Kong [2]. - From November 17 to the present, the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.25%, marking it as the least affected tech index in Hong Kong [2]. - The article highlights the contrasting views in the market regarding AI, with some fearing a bubble similar to the 2000 internet crash, while others see it as a final opportunity to invest in AI [5][6]. AI Sector Analysis - The article compares the current AI market to the 2000 internet bubble, noting that while there are concerns about overvaluation, many leading companies in the "M7" group have substantial revenues and profits, with annual revenues exceeding $100 billion and profits in the hundreds of billions [7][9]. - The capital expenditure to operating cash flow ratio for the "M7" group is 49%, lower than the 56% seen during the internet bubble peak, indicating a healthier financial position [8]. - The overall valuation of the "M7" companies is around 33 times earnings, which is lower than the 60 times seen at the peak of the internet bubble [9]. Domestic AI Landscape - In China, the AI sector is also experiencing a correction, but there are significant breakthroughs, such as Alibaba's AI assistant achieving over 10 million downloads in just one week [12]. - The capital expenditure of Chinese tech giants is projected to turn positive, with a growth rate of 18% by March 2025, reflecting a similar trajectory to overseas AI giants [12]. - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index, which includes major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, has a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.66, significantly lower than the 33 times seen in the US market [18]. Investment Outlook - The article emphasizes that the core investment value in the AI sector is driven by genuine demand and supported by financially healthy companies, marking the beginning of a technological revolution [24]. - The potential for growth in the Chinese AI market is substantial, particularly in consumer applications, which are still in their infancy compared to the US market [23]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term value of AI applications rather than short-term market fluctuations, with a particular emphasis on companies with strong fundamentals and financial health [25].