华尔街都在猜：为等待更多就业数据，美联储会推迟12月FOMC会议吗？

Core Viewpoint - The timing of the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting is under intense scrutiny, with discussions about the possibility of postponing the meeting to gather crucial employment data before making interest rate decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Timing and Employment Data - The originally scheduled FOMC meeting on December 9-10 may be delayed due to the release of two key employment reports on December 16, which are critical for interest rate decisions [1][3]. - The delay in data release is attributed to a government shutdown, which has caused the November employment report to be postponed, along with previously skipped October data [1][3]. - Historical precedents exist for adjusting meeting schedules, as seen in 1971 and 1974, indicating that such changes are possible within the legal framework governing the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Group 2: Labor Market Indicators - The September employment data indicated a significant weakness in the labor market, with private sector job growth at only 97,000, and a negative four-week moving average of -13,300 jobs when excluding healthcare [3][5]. - Twelve out of sixteen leading industries showed contraction, with cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction remaining particularly weak [5][7]. - The UBS leading labor market indicator fell to 75% in September from 88% in August, suggesting a decline in employment growth potential [3][8]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Policy Implications - There is a division among FOMC members regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with some advocating for a 25 basis point reduction while others believe it may not be necessary [2][10]. - The decision-making process is complicated by the lack of complete employment data, which could lead to policy misjudgments if the meeting proceeds as scheduled [8][10]. - A delay in the meeting could provide clearer signals for market participants, while maintaining the original schedule may indicate a consensus on the need for action despite incomplete data [10].